Thursday, January 30, 2014

George Soros on China

How China decides to approach the tension it faces between sustaining rapid economic growth and amassing a major debt burden represents the key global issue facing the world today, says hedge fund legend George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management.
"The major uncertainty facing the world today is . . . the future direction of China," he writes in Economia.

"The growth model responsible for its rapid rise has run out of steam. That model depended on financial repression of the household sector, in order to drive the growth of exports and investments."

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/George-Soros-China-Global-growth/2013/12/31/id/544572#ixzz2pBA7iACn

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Global economy issues are political

George Soros is heartened by current efforts to revive growth in the world’s major economies, the hapless eurozone being the one exception.
“All of the looming problems for the global economy are political in character,” he writes.

The U.S. is showing its muscle as the developed world’s strongest economy on several counts:

Shale energy is an important competitive advantage in manufacturing in general and in petrochemicals in particular.
The banking and household sectors are deleveraging.
Quantitative easing has boosted asset values.
The housing market has improved, with construction lowering unemployment.
The fiscal drag exerted by sequestration is about to expire.

http://www.cutimes.com/2014/01/06/soros-makes-predictions-for-worlds-top-economies?ref=hp

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Unsolved problems in China

The Chinese leadership was right to give precedence to economic growth over structural reforms, because structural reforms…But there is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years. How and when this contradiction will be resolved will have profound consequences for China and the world.

 A successful transition in China will most likely entail political as well as economic reforms, while failure would undermine still-widespread trust in the country’s political leadership, resulting in repression at home and military confrontation abroad.

The other great unresolved problem is the absence of proper global governance. The lack of agreement among the United Nations Security Council’s five permanent members is exacerbating humanitarian catastrophes in countries like Syria – not to mention allowing global warming to proceed largely unhindered.
But, in contrast to the Chinese conundrum, which will come to a head in the next few years, the absence of global governance may continue indefinitely. - in Project Syndicate

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Future crises will be political in origin

Future crises will be political in origin. Indeed, this is already apparent, because the EU has become so inward-looking that it cannot adequately respond to external threats, be they in Syria or Ukraine. But the outlook is far from hopeless; the revival of a threat from Russia may reverse the prevailing trend toward European disintegration.

As a result, the crisis has transformed the EU from the “fantastic object” that inspired enthusiasm into something radically different. What was meant to be a voluntary association of equal states that sacrificed part of their sovereignty for the common good – the embodiment of the principles of an open society – has now been transformed by the euro crisis into a relationship between creditor and debtor countries that is neither voluntary nor equal. Indeed, the euro could destroy the EU altogether. - in project syndicate

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Major decisions facing China

"The major uncertainty facing the world today is not the euro but the future direction of China."

“[T]here is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years,” writes Soros.
“How and when this contradiction will be resolved will have profound consequences for China and the world.”

Soros added in a recent article in project syndicate

George Soros Blog

George Soros is a investor who is outspoken on world economic policies and an unapologetic proponent of European integration, Soros has recently declared that the euro is "here to stay." Born in Budapest, Soros survived Nazi occupation of Hungary and went on to study at London School of Economics before launching his hedge fund firm in 1969, the Quantum Fund with Jim Rogers.

George Soros is currently married to Tamiko Bolton, who is half his age. Bolton is the investors third wife.